Apple

Apple Watch amazing sales, but perhaps the last smart watch “fig leaf”

Smart watches after a few years before the market peak, so far now fell to the bottom, it is better to say that the market has returned to the rational stage, which is the stage the industry must go through.

According to a recent IDC survey, Apple Watch shipped 8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2017 as the highest-selling smartwatch for the period and year. In 2017, the data throughout the year, Apple Watch shipments in 2017 is as high as 17.7 million.

However, after all, “a flower alone is not a spring,” Apple Watch’s large sales does not mean that the entire smart watch market is hot, the smart watch market as a whole has also been declining. In addition to the Apple Watch, sales of other smart watch makers, including Samsung, Garmin, Fossil and others, are just 15.6 million. So why smart watch manufacturers began to decline? Why Apple Watch survived?

Die-hard powder and brand effect blessing, Apple Watch “shelf life” to be extended

In recent years, under the trend of this wave, smart watch manufacturers have mushroomed, and in the early days of smart watches, it was even predicted to be the next generation of smart phones. However, the good news is not long, smart watches soon began a wide range of “ebb tide,” as other smart hardware in general, did not reach the user’s expectations, and the user’s fresh feeling is bound to have a shelf life, time is over, It is winter, and this is mainly due to the following two reasons:

First, the tasteless, not just needed. Many users have this feeling, spirited to buy smart watches, adjust all the settings, push, but in the end, it is reduced to a full charge of the “traditional watch.” The so-called smart and not more practical, nor imagined so fun. And Chinese consumers’ family environment, living habits and smart watches formed a strong contrast, the scene elements are not sufficient, at least for the moment it is not just needed.

At present, the function of smart watch roughly includes timing, information reminder, health monitoring, weather push and news subscription push. The replaceability of these functions is very strong. And now the public free wifi did not materialize, most of the functions of the smart watch will not be available once the smart watch is disconnected from the Internet. , But also for the general public, the acceptance of intelligent hardware is not high, however, too many players chased under the outlet can only be reduced to bubbles in the end.

Second, the connection property is weak. All-Internet era, intelligent hardware manufacturers outline a smart blueprint for life. In fact, many users do not have too many smart appliances or other devices to connect to at home. Only when there are enough smart devices in the home will all sense of experience of all things come true. Even if there are enough smart appliances, different brands can achieve the interconnection between the current is still a problem to be solved.

As a result, it is doomed smart watch has obvious “shelf life”, once the shelf life is over, to meet the smart watch can only be the first year of winter like VR. So why is Apple Watch survived? In my opinion, this should benefit from Apple’s own brand effect and diehard powder blessing round.

The talented “New Yorker” Gladwell, “Tipping Point,” focuses on how to get the product out of fashion, noting that the law of adhesion does not change the intrinsic quality of information, Make some minor changes, leading to popularity.

Many of the current brands on the market are inherently adhesive or brand-name. Apple’s brand adhesion is obvious that is innovative. It is precisely because this makes Apple has a large number of around the world with “fruit powder.” Similar to it and have millet, cost-effective brand adhesion accumulated a lot of “rice noodles.”

Although since the death of Steve Jobs, Apple’s brand innovation is gradually weakening the adhesion, which is more evident in the smart machine reaction, Apple is no longer in the eyes of the people that can change the world’s enterprises. After all, “thin dead camel than big horse,” Apple’s brand effect and loyal fruit powder support the sales of smart watches, which other smart watch manufacturers do not have the conditions.

Tablet PC with the current situation is similar to the smart watch, the global trend of flat panel seems to be a foregone conclusion, ipaid sales, though it is also continuing to decline, but still maintain a certain level of shipments, which is the value of brand adhesion.

In fact, the smart watch itself is not a fake demand, but has not yet reached its point in time of eruption, but in this period it will go through a long period of pain, very naturally can be sub-cake, quite can only act as an industry The “martyrs”, and hold on the key lies in the idea of ‚Äč‚Äčanother product, so that smart watches can get the user’s favorite.

Smart Watch “Station Study”: election on the “big brother” is very important

In the above, we discussed the reason why many smart watches continued to decline in sales. To sum up, in fact, some smart watch manufacturers are actually making mistakes in positioning and perception, and smart watches are wrong and wrong “Big Brother”, although the general trend of smart upgrades is inevitable, but for now, smart watches are intelligent hardware, smart watches should not be close to smart machines, but should choose to move closer to traditional watches, based on traditional watches Instead of jumping directly to the “smart society” blueprint for product design.

From the design point of view, the watch has become a key element for many people. However, almost all the smart watches design ideas follow the inertia of smart phones thinking, is designed to be square, the user does not pay the bill is naturally deserved.

But smartwatches, in any case, do nothing to experiencing the experience of a smart phone, is a pain point that can not be changed, so it is somewhat exaggerated to see it as the next smart phone-like product. After all, the screen is limited, the use of the scene is limited, but the standard traditional watches, smart watches can work hard in the design, this is to make up, and for most people, the watch is just accessories, to look good, identity Symbol, if on this basis, then equipped with intelligence, it would be even more icing on the cake.

From the crowd, the biggest target audience for smart watches should be middle-class consumers who want a decent watch that can be worn on a variety of occasions but do not want to buy expensive premium watches. Watches are serious commodities with extreme price differentials, a watch that can be worn on any occasion, and the price is quite expensive for most middle class. However, having a decent watch, like having decent suits, is almost a rigid requirement for the middle class, provided the watch is not unaffordable. Well, there is a huge amount of opportunities.

First of all, the price of smart watches will be much lower than a decent traditional watch. Hundreds of dollars, if you buy a toy, it is quite expensive, but if you buy a piece of any occasion can not be discounted, or even to reflect their own sense of fashion / technology sense of the watch, it is very cheap.

Second, a huge difference between smartwatches and traditional watches is that smartwatches can and must be iterated. Traditional high-level watches, the basic buy is to be long-term use. Unless the wealth / identity explosion rises or hobbies in the future, the middle class people will not basically change their minds at will. The smart watch is not, even if the cycle is longer, it will certainly form an iteration, and after a period of time, consumers will abandon the old purchase of new products, new iterations of intelligent products to ensure its market saturation.

A brief review of the watch for centuries history of development, we will find, whether it is the impact of quartz watch on the mechanical watch that year, or now the “smart watch” represented by Apple Watch impact on the quartz watch and mechanical watch , Mechanical watches are forever handed down for their unique user value, this irreplaceable value is not how powerful watches, but contains the movement of the pointer under the history, technology and wealth symbol.

Although currently on the market noisy smart watches and love the table did not win the hearts and minds of people, but hope that the future smart watches do not become a cell phone companion again picked up through the 500-year-old beauty of the pointer in the history and technology , To find a good balance between the continuation of the traditional watch pointer appearance and battery life, smart wristbands capture the core intelligence to become personal data detection and processing center, flexible adaptation to the various life and work scenarios , Embrace the future with smart technology, and extend the classic with the beauty of pointers.

In short, in my opinion, smart watches and traditional watches there is no obvious exclusion relationship, but should be more and more smart watches fashion, fashion watches more and more intelligent, the integration of the two is the general trend.

Therefore, for smart watch manufacturers, from design to function, should first learn from traditional watches, because this product itself should be an upgrade to the traditional watch, to the current characteristics of the user-based product design, rather than to Future imagination as the basis, can not “eat a fat one,” steady and steady fight is king, after all, the user’s acceptance also requires a process.

Target subdivision scenarios: sports, health, children, or best incremental factor

From the current point of view, the development of smart watches does not seem optimistic, but in my opinion, the emergence of this situation is actually unexpected things.

After all, with the vents often go hand in hand is the bubble, the concept of intelligent hardware hot, led a wave of consumer tide, the smart watch market quickly go hot, attracted some impulse consumer groups, after years of precipitation, bubble break, Powder cooling is also normal. In front of us to learn traditional watches is to solve the current smart watch manufacturers a solution to the plight of ideas. In addition, although the environment remains to be explored, it can not be concluded that there is no market for smart watches. Under the long-tail effect, many users still have a soft spot for their watches. However, The amount is limited, in order to expand the user base, smart watches should make an issue in the vertical scene to expand the crowd.

In the traditional economy, the single purchase behavior mostly points to the use value. Consumers buy because they need rather than buy. In the long-tail economy, random consumption and sudden consumption increase greatly. In the mainstream target group How to tap the vertical scene has become the key to breaking the industry.

In the author’s opinion, want to expand the user base, mainly around two aspects to make a fuss: The first scene is that there is no smart machine or smart machine can not replace the scene, the second scene is competing with competing products to snatch users, such as smart hand Ring and other wearable smart devices.

According to relevant information, at present, smart watches and smart bracelets occupy a total proportion of more than 90% of the wearable device product form. The mainstream smart watch functions are generally concentrated in the telephone answering, event reminders, interactive dual-screen, data services. The smart bracelet is mainly based on health, which includes fitness jogging, sleep detection, heart rate measurement and other ancillary functions. However, these functional watches are also available. It is a wise choice to rejuvenate the smartwatches by drawing on the function of the bracelet to reap the target audience of smart wearable products and smart bracelets.

In the above, I mentioned, smart watches with the big brother is very important, do not compare with the smart machine, do not substitute, the screen is limited, the arm will never be the thigh, to do intelligent machines complement each other, intelligent machine versatility, But it is not a gnarling, running in this vertical scene, and can not play too much value, professional speaking friends, preferring watches rather than cell phones, although the handset is not as good as portable, smartwatches can be other Give users more experience.

Then health. Mobile medical, health field. This direction is a brand new blue ocean. With people’s emphasis on health, the market prospect in this area is extremely vast. If this wearable device can really achieve the function of detecting human health in many aspects, then this wearable will be the second one after the mobile phone , Another personal electronic product with the highest penetration rate. Smart watches and smart bracelets, there is a direct competitive relationship, in terms of health, smart watches function to spike smart bracelets, snatch more markets.

Surveillance fitness, physical data, not for the doctor to see, but to allow users to master, walk 10,000 steps today? Climbed several floors, etc., more is an incentive mechanism. Like a mobile phone installed nike running, you can count the run mileage, plus some less perfect social function, running enthusiasm has been improved, in fact, those data are not accurate, but running, lonely movement, But I need people to know that I am alone.

In modern society, health is mentioned a very important degree, the monitoring of smart watches is not scientific and meticulous analysis, but rather the record and a simple analysis, play the role of supervision and supervision, from this perspective, the future of smart watches is great of.

Finally, in the children’s market, the smart watch market can still spike smartphones. After all, premature contact with smartphones is not a good thing for kids, and it is easy to indulge in the internet. Smart watches, as emasculated smartphones, can be very good Fill the phone gap. In addition, children as vulnerable groups in society, smart watches can be anti-lost. Smart watches on the market, in addition to the basic GPS positioning, a key for help, electronic fence, remote listening, health management and other functions are indispensable to the protection of children’s safety, complete anti-lost function allows parents and children in the face of There are more than one solution to danger and more insurance.

This shows that smart watches after the peak market a few years ago, so far now fell to the bottom, it is better to say that the market has returned to the rational stage, which is the stage the industry must go through. Finding a suitable market position and targeting subdivision scenarios will be the main theme of future industry development. It is also the basis and premise for players in the industry to safely pass the “painful period” and reap future market dividends.