According to foreign media reports, the Nikkei Asian Review reported January 29 and February 20 that Apple is reducing the production of iPhone X from 40 million units in March to 20 million units in March.
This seems to be the market for the iPhone in March quarter of the quarter was significantly lower than the previous quarter in December last year, iPhone X sales will be disappointing. But when you look at these numbers and compare them to the new products of the same period last year, you will find that 20 million iPhone X data are more historical.
The article, January 29, pushed Apple shares to fall more than $ 3 a share, plunging from $ 171.51 to $ 167.96 a share. A few days later, the company’s performance outlook for the quarter’s March results also did not help, as the market is still expected to play a role in the super cycle of the iPhone, the company’s December quarterly earnings release the day after the stock fell To 160.50 US dollars. However, on Friday, the company closed at 176.21 U.S. dollars, regaining all previous losses.
The other 30 million iPhones produced seem to be ignored
The Nikkei Asia Review said on January 29 that “Apple will halve the iPhone X production target within three months starting in January from the 40 million set at the time of its launch in November last year. The U.S. tech giant has informed its suppliers that it has decided to cut its production target for the first quarter to about 20 million.
The article concludes, “It is estimated that Apple will maintain a total of 30 million production targets for low-priced products such as the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus.” That is, a total of 50 million iPhone production, which is in line with the quarterly iPhone in December last year 77.3 million sales compared to a decrease of 35%. In the past two years, such a decline of 32% and 35% respectively, so the 35% decline is not unusual.
iPhone 8 release seems to be investors “forgotten”
Market research firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partnership (CIRP) estimates that iPhone 8 and 8 Plus accounted for 24% and 17% of iPhones sold in the United States in the December quarter respectively. Together, the two accounted for 41% of the total, a double that of CIRP’s estimated iPhone X sales of 20%. In addition, iPhone 8 and 8 Plus average selling price is slightly higher than its predecessors iPhone 7 and 7 Plus. This helped raise the total iPhone sales price from $ 696 to $ 797 and a year-on-year increase of $ 101.
Josh Lowitz, co-founder and co-founder of CIRP, said: “All three of the newest iPhones accounted for less of the total US iPhone sales in the December quarter than in the same period last year. The same period last year, iPhone 7 and 7 Plus two sales in the total iPhone sales accounted for 72%.
He also said, “However, with the previous release of the iPhone is not comparable.First, the iPhone X is not the beginning of the quarter when the introduction of Apple’s product lineup further market segmentation, the company now has 8 products, but also Apple released new handsets at different times, releasing three new handsets at a time, but the introduction of the most advanced and expensive iPhone X was postponed for five weeks after the release of the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus.
What is Apple’s forecast for quarterly iPhone sales in March?
Apple did not provide detailed iPhone performance expectations, but this can be estimated by us because we know the history of each product line quarterly revenue, sales and average sales price changes. Based on these estimates Apple’s expectations, that is, the quarter of March Apple iPhone sales of about 53 million.
This is below the level analysts expected in a super cycle, but this is consistent with the historical decline of the past three years.
iPhone X will not become the largest sales of Apple products
Based on a survey of 500 Apple customers in the United States, CIRP has been tracking iPhone sales in the United States for many years. Below is a breakdown of the estimates for the quarter in March over the last three years and the latest iPhone sales. These figures show that the share of the latest iPhone in sales is declining every year.
Specific figures are:
In the March quarter quarter of 2015 (iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s, iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus), iPhone 6 sales accounted for 56%, iPhone 6 Plus sales accounted for 22%, a total of 78% .
March 2016 quarter, where the 5 products (iPhone 5s, iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus) in, iPhone 6s sales accounted for 43%, iPhone 6s Plus sales accounted for 28%, both Total 71%.
Among the five products in the quarterly March 2017 (iPhone SE, iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPhone 7 and iPhone 7s Plus), iPhone 7 accounted for 35% of sales and iPhone 7 Plus accounted for 33% of sales, both Total 68%.
CIRP estimated that the iPhone X in the December quarter of last quarter accounted for 20% of the US iPhone sales. If Apple did sell 20 million iPhone X in the quarter of March of this year, and assuming iPhone sold 50 million, iPhone X sales will account for 40% of iPhone’s total sales.
In the December quarter quarter of 8 products (iPhone SE, iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPhone 7, iPhone 7s Plus, iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, iPhone X), iPhone 8 sales accounted for 24%, iPhone 8 Plus is 17%, iPhone X is 20%, the three together for 61%.
After all, iPhonex will not sell 40 million units in the quarter of March, if it is 20 million it will be close to the historical situation. Even if only sold 20 million iPhone X, Apple should also dominate the profit margins of smart phones.