The 100th anniversary of the Spanish flu: what happened to humans and what has changed?

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World War II ended in the atomic bomb, World War I ended in the flu virus.

Between 1918 and 1920, at the end of the First World War and two years after the war, a pandemic called “Spanish flu” swept across the Americas, Europe, Asia and even Eskimos, capturing The lives of 50 to 100 million people in the world reached 5% of the world population at that time. The number of people it knocked down far exceeded the number of war casualties.

Even more mysterious and frightening is that the disease likes to attack young people, and in a few short days, those strong bodies will fall painfully. Later, some researchers think that the flu may bring war on the population Reducing one of the reasons for the early end of World War I.

American hospital during the pandemic

Just as its arrival is unknown, its disappearance is not due to the valor of human beings. The flu in Spain is a “plague” that has been said by many people in history. From time to time people are reminded of the catastrophic consequences of the plague, and thinking is not without merit.

As the famous American journalist “The Great Influenza: Epic of the Deadliest Plague in History” published by the American historian John M. Barry in 2004 said: The 1918 pandemic was not a simple one about destruction, death and despair Is not just a story of how one society is struggling with the disasters that nature imposes on human society. It is also a story about science and exploration, a story about how people should change their way of thinking, one about how people should think calmly and then make a bold choice and act in an environment of total disarray rather than unnecessarily long hours Argue the story.

The end of December 2017, high-intensity seasonal flu broke out throughout the country. In the 52nd week, the number of flu cases in Beijing increased by 81.44% within one week and the number of flu cases in the country exceeded 120,000. In Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Tianjin, emergency departments of major hospitals in China were full, and the number of people infected with 0-4 and 25-59 infections increased dramatically. In the first week of 2018, 9,000 flu cases were reported in Beijing, 19 times more than last year.

In the United States, the worst flu in a decade also claimed the lives of 63 children in February, with 4.5 million people in the United Kingdom reporting the symptoms in January. In 2018, it became the worst winter in the world since the outbreak of the 1968 influenza in Hong Kong.

Vaccination failure, pediatric halt, out-of-stock “cure”, the school became a flu-hit areas, a series of epidemics and forewarning, isolation, emergency alert … … 100 years later, in the face of a sudden epidemic, human There seems to be no difference between panic and helplessness.

There is no reason why as the spring of 2018 approached, the number of cases of influenza that had entered an absolute peak began to decline and returned to its conventional level by the end of February. The flu virus, like every eruption in the past 100 years, goes away again.

At this moment, we have reviewed the pandemic that we had 100 years ago. It is exactly what we want to see and what we can change before the disease.

twenty four

War, a huge petri dish

“Spanish flu” does not originate in Spain.

In fact, it came to Europe only two months after the outbreak. Here the flu came to Italy from France and soon spread to Britain, Germany, Denmark and Spain.

That was the war that started in 1918 in the Balkans, which lasted for four years. Every newspaper in the warring states during the wartime reported on the army and the government with great reports – except for the neutral country of Spain. Here, the maximum warning and coverage of the flu pandemic that afflicted 800 million people, including King Alfonso XIII, was obtained.

In this way, the news war control gave the flu a name. This is only the smallest of the effects of the war on the Spanish flu.

In January 1918, the United States joined the war as a full-fledged country for just one year. For this full-fledged war, the U.S. military increased from tens of thousands before the war to millions in just three months. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers live in temporary shelters – they come from completely different states and regions, with radically different disease susceptibilities – many years after public health experts rate them, millions of young people gather at barracks Extreme tension and frequent contact with mixed populations mean an increase in the geometric progression of the epidemic.

In addition to the massive population and pathogenic aggression, the war also provided the best justification for population migration, together with the extreme war environment and harsh medical conditions, as the best breeding ground for the deadly infectious disease of 1918.

In February 1918, the flu came

By the end of February 1918, several young men were recruited from Haskell County, Kansas, where the “flu” epidemic was spreading. They arrived at the Foster Barracks on 2 March. Two days later, the Force Hospital began receiving the first batch of influenza soldiers and, within three weeks, 1,100 seriously ill patients from Foster Hospital were admitted to hospital. On 18 March, as many as 10% of the fledgling outbreaks occurred in the large cities of 30 neighboring military bases in the country, as 10% of the soldiers in Forrester’s camp in Frisian, Georgia, whose forces were mobilized with Foston.

The epidemic quickly spread to the other side of the earth. The day after the U.S. troops landed in Brest, Europe, the French Navy Command suddenly interrupted the attack. By the end of April, the epidemic went to Italy with French soldiers and then to British Army troops. In May, the outbreak of the Second Army in the UK deteriorated. One artillery brigade fell by 1/3 in 48 hours.

The first wave of influenza outbreak of the United States hospital

This is the first outbreak of the Spanish flu. The disease was spread to Spain, Greece, Germany and Denmark and arrived in Mumbai and Shanghai with a transport vessel in early June, but after 4 months, most of those infected recovered quickly and soldiers quickly returned to battle.

Everything is getting better, before the flu outbreak seems to be just an episode of the war. Until July 1918.

The spread of the pandemic worldwide

A serious flu broke out on a ship sailing to New York from France and had to temporarily stop in Halifax, Canada, due to an overwhelming number of sick sailors, awaiting seafarers regained their strength; a sudden outbreak in a small French military base , Took 5% of French recruits; and in July, a troop hospital was packed up with an outbreak of high-mortality influenza in a U.S.-backed contingent of Pike camp in Arkansas.

One by one, cases appeared one after another in the world. The second wave of epidemics was like the water in the pot to be boiled, finally bringing a fatal blow. Within a month, it has spread across all continents except Oceania.

Immediately more violent second wave

In Devon’s barracks in northern Boston, 345 people were diagnosed with pneumonia on 19 September alone, accounting for 19.5% of the entire barracks. In Philadelphia, there were streets full of white Silk cloth, stacked bodies are nowhere to be placed, and parents can only place their sons buried in macaroni’s boxes; Canada’s Labrador, frozen in the cold with sheets; Europe, Germany ordinary people The death rate of 27.3% in Africa, the Gambia, the flu erased the traces of most villages; 10% of Guam in Japan died of flu in Delhi, India, some of the train leaving the station when the car is still alive, Arrived when the body is full …

Blood everywhere – in a letter written to colleagues by the U.S. military chief Gerst, he described them as beginning to look like the common cold, but when they were taken to the hospital, their condition deteriorated rapidly to unheard-of malignancy Pneumonia, two hours after admission, their cheekbones appear reddish brown spots, a few hours later, the patient significantly cyanosis, they face bruising, can not distinguish between white or black. … El town opened a special train for the delivery of coffins in short supply. ”

In less than two months, the rate of death that climbed too fast has been boring. In the Michigan barracks, the dead were put into body bags without a complete break, and on the third day of the Philadelphia procession, 117 people were killed in the city, double the number on the fourth day. Sick people lying in bed with their bodies at home and people digging graves have got sick, they refuse to bury the bodies of these flu patients. Many of the dead were horrified with bleeding in their ears and nose.

October 1918 New York street

Infection in wartime hospitals

The second wave of influenza outbreak in Spain is the longest, the largest and the highest in the entire flu pandemic. In October 1918 alone, 200,000 Americans were killed by the flu, and the average life expectancy of Americans in 1918 was therefore 12 years less than usual.

The third wave of flu did not end until 1920

The spring of 1919, the war has ended more than two months. The third wave of influenza flu was welcomed by those lucky enough who survived the war and disease as they were no longer subject to censorship and this was the period when the flu was most widely reported. People pick up the pen in your hand and write the first word: fear.

Allegedly, the flu was a comeback of the ancient medieval “black death,” and a Sydney newspaper did not hesitate to use the “doomsday plague” to address the flu. When childhood survivors of flu experience writing memoirs as adults, “Black Death” has become their most direct memory.

Street masked soldiers

Warning sign about pandemic isolated

Fear did not allow volunteers to enter the families of those who were seriously ill. In the end, many patients even starved to death. Nurses did not even dare to answer the phone numbers of the solicitors, lest the disease would spread through cables. In the midst of having to go out, people wear masks and do not go too far to talk as far as possible. “It’s fear, not the disease itself – that smashes society.”

In February 1919, the number of deaths from the flu in Paris was 2,676, compared to 1,517 in March. In fact, during the four months after the postwar Paris Peace Conference, the three giants of France, the United States and Britain participating in the conference have all been infected with the flu to varying degrees. It is even regarded as a stroke after President Wilson’s return to the United States One of the incentives.

The long third wave of flu lasts until the spring of 1920. At this time, the number of unconventional deaths in 1.8 billion people worldwide has exceeded 5%.

People are gradually convinced that the disease comes from the outside world

In 1918 when pathology and public health were still in their infancy, it was hard to get accurate judgment of the epidemic, even through public media messages.

At the time, the modern medical research in the United States was just beginning. Just decades before World War I, modern medicine was no different from two thousand years ago. Hippocrates, 460 BC, presented a medical approach to medical practice through observation. His “temperament and body fluid theory” was later refined by Gallon, a Roman physician, to conclude that “the disease is the result of an imbalance in the body, Need to adjust their balance, you can successfully treat the disease. ” It ruled Western medicine for nearly 1500 years, providing a powerful basis for “bleeding therapy”, “homeopathy” and the use of potent laxatives.

Paintings “Medieval medicine”, the picture center is Galen

But by the end of the nineteenth century medical education began to change in Europe, and medicine was gradually identified as a science that was experimentally explored rather than relied on logic and observation. Researchers began to examine medicine in a modern science-like way for 2000 The old thesis collapsed in just 300 years.

After the French Revolution, the French physician Bishu started to dissect the organs and used stethoscopes and thermometers. Dr. Louise and his colleagues conducted a comparative study of organs and healthy organs in the study of pathological anatomy and gradually formed a new concept of disease: disease Is a kind of intruding into the substantive part of the human body, it has its own characteristics, and the objective existence.

Numerical measurement systems such as thermometers and sphygmomanometers have also introduced mathematical logic into the medical field. In the 1840s, as an entirely new subject of epidemiology, the British physician John Snow made a detailed observation of the outbreak of cholera in Westminster, London, in his paper “The Study of Cholera Transmission Methods” He applied the statistics to the essay, suggesting that the spread of cholera did not originate from dirty air, but rather from serious water pollution.

At the same time, the statement that the disease originates outside the body has also been accepted by the microbiology community.

Robert Koch in the mirror found Bacillus anthracis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis

As a new achromatic lens became a standard feature for German doctors, microbiologists gradually found larger parasites under the microscope. After Virgins and Bernard Co-founded Cytopathology in 1849, human awareness of the disease was advanced To the cellular level. A large number of laboratories for exploration and research appeared in Europe. In 1840, the German microbiologist Henler published the article “On Poisoning and Infectious Diseases”, which laid the basic conditions for the etiological relationship between microorganisms and diseases. At this time, the etiology and emerging Microbiology finally solved the doubts that plagued medicine for twenty centuries, namely, “What exactly is contagion?”

But they still know nothing about the virus

But in 1918, the culprit – the virus – had not yet entered the researcher’s field of vision. It was not until more than 10 years later that the diagnosis of influenza caused by the virus was made public.

Today, as long as people with high school biology education know that viruses and bacteria are different, it is a life-form that does not require metabolism and has a copy-only function. At the heart of the virus is a segment of the gene that invades cells through various forms, modifies host genes and replicates them into thousands of new virus individuals. Different forms of influenza virus have different effects on the human body, of which Influenza A virus causes epidemic diseases in the region or the world.

H1N1 flu virus profile

Influenza virus mainly attacks the respiratory system. When the cells are invaded, the human immune system will respond quickly to it. The influenza virus bypasses the recognition of the immune system by means of “antigen drift” and “antigen drift” And bring popularity – many medical history researchers believe that several of the 15th and 16th centuries of the pandemic is actually a flu, after the beginning of modern human transport, the epidemic occurred in the 18th century, 6 occurred in the 19th century 4 times.

People who were obsessed with finding pathogens at the time did not know these. Pathologists represented by Parker, a New York City lab director and bacteriologist Lewis, have gradually attributed influenza to bacteria called Haemophilus influenzae, after anatomy and pathogen support.

This is a microorganism found in 1892 that is prevalent in the respiratory system of flu patients and is therefore considered by the Finder Dr. Phoebe as the causative agent of the flu. (Later studies have shown that it actually incurred bacterial pneumonia)

Haemophilus influenzae

Within two years of the flu, in dozens of laboratories in the United States and Europe, microbiologists began to isolate the bacteria in various ways from both the patient and the dead. Separation and cultivation process is very difficult, they can still find fault in the face of failure. Throughout October, antisera and influenza vaccines from Philadelphia, New York and Chicago were distributed nationwide, and millions of people were used by a massive vaccine, until Haemophilus influenzae has not yet been able to follow conventional bacteriology Principles are separated and nurtured.

Diseases and wars bring depression

The mystery of the flu has disappeared, and the impact it has had is much more than that.

Pandemic flu deaths in Europe and the United States in 1918 and 1919

Influenza sequelae and complications worldwide are documented. Heart disease and meningitis caused by the flu have dominated medical records for the next few years.

The bereavement pain brought by the war and the flu filled the literary works at that time. Later researchers believe that the depression of the will of the people and the nihilistic blend of betrayal and misery in the 1920s are now related to the flu. The bloody scenes on the fronts of World War I were restored by the flu around each and every one. The death of neighbors and loved ones, the failure of all kinds of epidemic prevention and treatment methods, all make people’s belief in science and religion fall into nothingness.

Three victims of the flu

In 1923, Dewey published an article in The New Republic, “It is questionable whether people are as widespread as they are today, and the concern with the cure and the savior is to prove the extent to which the world is seriously ill.”

During the invasion, many local governments were unable to dominate the overall situation, but the powerful social mobilization necessary for epidemic prevention and crisis management still enhanced people’s reliance on the central government.

The national public health system is shaping

There are also good aspects. As a result of this flu, humankind has begun to establish an international health cooperation program on a global scale. Epidemiological and medical statistics have become mainstream methodologies in public health research.

From Philadelphia to New Mexico, a completely new public health service was established, a large number of temporary hospitals were converted to permanent hospitals and the formal establishment of the modern medical system as part of the social fabric was fixed.

Chicago City Nurses Job Advertisements

Public health governance in the United States is inextricably linked to rapid urbanization in the late 19th century. Cross-regional travel with densely populated and susceptible populations, coupled with the rapid deterioration of urban sanitation, has created an excellent environment for the rapid spread of infectious diseases.

It was not until the late 1860s that Washington’s streets were full of residents’ dumping trash, rats and cockroaches even in the White House. Under such circumstances, the epidemic of the two epidemics in the late 18th and early 19th centuries has directly turned into an opportunity for early public health governance in the United States.

The first health commission in the United States was set up in New York in 1798 to control the plague after its pandemic of yellow fever. For the first time in 1804, the government set up a full-time health inspector in the densely populated city, under the leadership of the police station. Later, some major cities such as Boston and Philadelphia gradually established specialized health inspection systems. In addition to supervising sanitation, they are also responsible for quarantining and isolating infectious diseases. By the eve of the Civil War, many state health committees had established a special infectious disease registration and reporting system and started health promotion and vaccination against smallpox.

In 1878, as the industrial development and population increased, the sanitation situation in the United States deteriorated again. To this end, the Parliament passed a special “National Quarantine Law” to control infectious diseases. The quarantine law greatly strengthened the quarantine authority of the U.S. public health and naval hospital services, later the U.S. Public Health Bureau. When the Yellow Fever was once again erupted in New Orleans in 1905, the agency was empowered to regulate interstate transportation of sera, vaccines and other items.

By 1900, most of the health councils in the country had the function of strengthening legal supervision and prevention of infectious diseases. Between 1915 and 1920, these evolving health and epidemic prevention agencies were mixed and lacked standardization rules. Most of those mature public health programs deal with the federal government and the state government with great care. In small cities with a population of less than 25,000, the work of the health sector is often only premature for quarantine and chemical fumigation of sexually transmitted infections means.

Pandemic doctor and quarantine officer

At the beginning of the flu pandemic, the health minister in La Crosse, Wisconsin, pointed out the issue of standardization in the field of public health. After the flu, the public health agencies in the United States have been remarkably organized. People are also slowly realizing that public health matters require experts to answer their questions. Urban, rural and railway health systems began to unify standards for water, milk and wastewater treatment and the state government collected a uniform report of the disease.

Many permanent public health agencies are established and retained in the flu. For example, New Haven specifically for the Ministry of Health had a permanent transformation. They have reorganized school-level health screening companies and have dramatically increased the budget for child health services; a Massachusetts-based town no longer relies on the sanitation facilities around them and the temporary emergency hospital established in the flu has become a permanent establishment.

Influenza, universal health education has been popular. Education and publicity in the health sector is a national or even a worldwide improvement. In big cities such as New York and Los Angeles, the bus is tagged with spitting and death. People are starting to believe that bad health habits can really cause illness. Urban cleaning and personal cleaning have become the mainstream of social education.

Prevention and treatment of influenza posters

Because of the flu, the Department of Public Health gained new credibility and authority. Also in Massachusetts, many people directly support the Ministry of Health as the general manager and solve the social and medical problems in the state. People also demand that the federal government control public health on the grounds of flu. Some even propose that doctors and nurses should all be classified under the Central People’s Government. A Post Journal in the city of Rochester pointed out that it is necessary to classify the whole country like Britain and France 2-3 districts for medical supervision.

People have also learned a few lessons from the flu, such as the need to create a backup force for the Department of Health. After October 1918, a large number of health officials participating in quarantine and preaching fell one after another, and people began to realize many problems in the construction of the health system. On October 27, a bill establishing a reserve force for the Department of Health was passed by the National Assembly, although it did not make much sense at the time of the flu epidemic, but this normative procedure still plays a role in the ensuing public health emergencies .

Since then, similar attention to public health has re-emerged and until the official implementation of the Roosevelt New Deal Social Security Act in 1935.

In the history of public health in the United States, scholars do not always mention the flu. The post-World War II “New History” research trend, in turn, linked the history of public health to social change and personal life, the Spanish flu that killed nearly 100 million people is so hidden in innumerable cholera, yellow fever and plagues.

How to have the ability to eliminate a disease?

If the mutation and epidemic of the virus is just an accident, then when will the new round of epidemic come? What has our community prepared for this?

In the “post-Hispanic flu” years, these problems continue to plague people. In particular, the legacy of the Spanish flu has become even greater after the three massive flu attacks of the 20th century. How to get the attention of a decision-maker to a disease often depends not only on the number of victims and on the pressure of death but also on socio-political behavior, the cooperation of large corporations, research institutes and nonprofit organizations.

Take the “One dime Campaign” After the World War Two Greatly Preventing Poliomyelitis in the United States as an Example. In 1921, President Roosevelt became infected with the polio virus after a swim. Sitting in a wheelchair, he soon became the most intuitive advocate of the disease.

Roosevelt bad behavior

In the meantime, the post-war high fertility rate has also brought about an increase in the number of cases of poliomyelitis. In 1946, there were 25,000 reported cases nationwide and 58,000 in 1952.

Statistically, the probability of serious poliomyelitis is low, the probability of permanent paralysis is less, and the probability of lethality is negligible. However, the U.S. government quickly advocated the National Polio Foundation, which was established in 1938, and soon became a disease most concerned about by Americans. Just pick up a magazine, people will see the title: “For Parents: Poliomyelitis Tips,” “How can you help polio?”

Resistant to polio posters

Elvis also joined the “dime movement”

In 1934, American physician Charles Armstrong passed the polio virus to the monkeys and mice in the laboratory. In 1936, Maurice Brody, a research assistant at New York University, finally succeeded in using the spinal cord of the monkey as a viral growth environment to make a polio vaccine.

Next you need to test the effectiveness of this vaccine. In the vaccine testing phase, Brody began to use himself and a number of helpers as subjects, the test results are quite good. Thus, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the inactivated vaccine, the Foundation started a trial of the Salk vaccine, relying on a myriad of dedicated volunteers centered on protecting children and their parents – the largest public health trial in history .

Throughout 1954, millions of American parents were persuaded to get their children involved in the experiment, and 1.3 million children were injected with the vaccine under test.

Children / pictures after vaccination is completed by Chicago Tribune

The country is mobilized. The Foundation held a two-day workshop in 211 cities across the country. Doctors and nurses receive simple training in the clinical use of vaccines; school leaders and teachers learn how to record data, contact parents, and phone numbers to report on the vaccine are ringing in the vaccine research office at the University of Michigan. In the end, 95% of the 600,000 children received all three injections, attesting to the value of intensive national advocacy and community-based efforts.

The children soon developed an allergic reaction, hundreds of whom died of accidents and infections. However, the results of the final test are encouraging. Studies show that the vaccine is effective in preventing paralytic poliomyelitis by 80% -90%.

A well-functioning system

Privately funded medical research also plays a role. In Europe, governments, universities and the rich are well-known for donating medical research. After diphtheria antitoxin was discovered in 1894, foreigners in America such as the rich and the private sector began to focus on the medical field.

In 1901, Rockefeller’s grandson died of a scarlet fever in Chicago. In the same year, the privately-funded Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research was established. The institute with 75 independent laboratories provided scientists with a perfect environment for collaboration. Since its inception, the Rockefeller Institute of Medicine has made medicine itself an independent field where scientists study infectious diseases and also lead researchers from the clinical world.

Six years after the birth of the institute, Simon Flechner, a scientist at the Institute, invented the serum therapy for bacterial meningitis, making himself and the institute famous.

More important than the fame is what the research institutes represent. Although none of the laboratories successfully identified the flu or isolated the so-called “Pf bacillus” in the flu, the concerted efforts of government, scientists and nonprofit organizations gave the later epidemic prevention a relatively well-functioning system.

Rockefeller Institute of Medicine

However, these agencies and behaviors devoted to public health services still often lead to dissatisfaction and doubt.

Just as Xiaotangshan Hospital, which set the world record for building speed records, in 2003, due to the rapid spread of the SARS epidemic, the Beijing municipal government urgently built a field infectious disease hospital with 508 wards and 1,000 beds in 8 days. It treated a total of 680 SARS patients in 51 days, most of whom were discharged. By 2010, the hospital, which is called Silent Hill in China, was announced to be demolished.

To what extent is the public’s awareness of the disease affected by a strong government? Does the system of public health care and health necessarily imply the transfer of individual rights? What factors can determine the ability of a society or country to fight the disease? Every large-scale epidemic will leave far-reaching topics for discussion.

The flu has triggered people’s thinking about methodologies

John M. Barry pointed out in “The Flu: Epic of the Deadliest Plague in History,” that the 1918 pandemic led people to think “two of the most important issues in science,” “What can I know?” And “I How do you know?

In his book, he wrote, “In fact, both science and religion have gone their separate ways in the first question of what can be learned. Religion – in a way that philosophy – thinks it can know Or at least deal with the “why” issue.

The question of “why” is too esoteric for science. Science considers itself to be able to study how things happen.

When science is not merely devoted to “what can I know”, but more importantly to changing its approach to research and to changing the answer to “How I Know”, the revolution in modern science, and especially in modern medicine, begins. ”

This is the methodological significance. In a narrow scientific field, the answer to “How do I know?” Determines whether one is confronted with scientific methods of operation – observation, logical deduction, or hands-on experimentation.

He also believes that the exploration of methods not only involves academic discussion, but also affects a society’s own management tools and even its social structure and its citizens’ way of life.

If a society believes itself to hold the truth and does not need to doubt its own beliefs, it will be easier for the community to stick to its rigid decrees and less likely to change. But if it leaves room for questioning the truth, it is more likely to become free and open.

“Pandemic: Epic of the Most Deadly Plague in History” cover

In the 1918 flu, people faced and accepted natural tyranny, facing the fear of death, while also suffering the harm caused by lies and ignorance. “It is impossible to estimate how many people died from the propaganda machine created by Wilson, There is also no direct sales how many young people because of the authority of the ‘flu’ guarantee in vain. We only know that in just four years the war killed 35 million people worldwide and the number of deaths due to communicable diseases surpassed the war.

Time went back to the Paris Peace Conference in the spring of 1919, and later the history of war and medical history even blamed the pandemic for the ultimately unsatisfactory peace talks. They would rather find evidence that the big three leading negotiators were caught in the confusion caused by the flu or could not explain why the peace talks originally planned for a permanent peace in the world became a breeding ground for the division of power and the retaliation for war.

In any case, World War I and the flu together imprinted “death” in people’s minds, which planted the seeds for the “evil” -battered war two decades later.

The pictures and images from the PBS documentary “American.Experience.Influenza.1918”

 

 

 

Apple Watch amazing sales, but perhaps the last smart watch “fig leaf”

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Smart watches after a few years before the market peak, so far now fell to the bottom, it is better to say that the market has returned to the rational stage, which is the stage the industry must go through.

According to a recent IDC survey, Apple Watch shipped 8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2017 as the highest-selling smartwatch for the period and year. In 2017, the data throughout the year, Apple Watch shipments in 2017 is as high as 17.7 million.

However, after all, “a flower alone is not a spring,” Apple Watch’s large sales does not mean that the entire smart watch market is hot, the smart watch market as a whole has also been declining. In addition to the Apple Watch, sales of other smart watch makers, including Samsung, Garmin, Fossil and others, are just 15.6 million. So why smart watch manufacturers began to decline? Why Apple Watch survived?

Die-hard powder and brand effect blessing, Apple Watch “shelf life” to be extended

In recent years, under the trend of this wave, smart watch manufacturers have mushroomed, and in the early days of smart watches, it was even predicted to be the next generation of smart phones. However, the good news is not long, smart watches soon began a wide range of “ebb tide,” as other smart hardware in general, did not reach the user’s expectations, and the user’s fresh feeling is bound to have a shelf life, time is over, It is winter, and this is mainly due to the following two reasons:

First, the tasteless, not just needed. Many users have this feeling, spirited to buy smart watches, adjust all the settings, push, but in the end, it is reduced to a full charge of the “traditional watch.” The so-called smart and not more practical, nor imagined so fun. And Chinese consumers’ family environment, living habits and smart watches formed a strong contrast, the scene elements are not sufficient, at least for the moment it is not just needed.

At present, the function of smart watch roughly includes timing, information reminder, health monitoring, weather push and news subscription push. The replaceability of these functions is very strong. And now the public free wifi did not materialize, most of the functions of the smart watch will not be available once the smart watch is disconnected from the Internet. , But also for the general public, the acceptance of intelligent hardware is not high, however, too many players chased under the outlet can only be reduced to bubbles in the end.

Second, the connection property is weak. All-Internet era, intelligent hardware manufacturers outline a smart blueprint for life. In fact, many users do not have too many smart appliances or other devices to connect to at home. Only when there are enough smart devices in the home will all sense of experience of all things come true. Even if there are enough smart appliances, different brands can achieve the interconnection between the current is still a problem to be solved.

As a result, it is doomed smart watch has obvious “shelf life”, once the shelf life is over, to meet the smart watch can only be the first year of winter like VR. So why is Apple Watch survived? In my opinion, this should benefit from Apple’s own brand effect and diehard powder blessing round.

The talented “New Yorker” Gladwell, “Tipping Point,” focuses on how to get the product out of fashion, noting that the law of adhesion does not change the intrinsic quality of information, Make some minor changes, leading to popularity.

Many of the current brands on the market are inherently adhesive or brand-name. Apple’s brand adhesion is obvious that is innovative. It is precisely because this makes Apple has a large number of around the world with “fruit powder.” Similar to it and have millet, cost-effective brand adhesion accumulated a lot of “rice noodles.”

Although since the death of Steve Jobs, Apple’s brand innovation is gradually weakening the adhesion, which is more evident in the smart machine reaction, Apple is no longer in the eyes of the people that can change the world’s enterprises. After all, “thin dead camel than big horse,” Apple’s brand effect and loyal fruit powder support the sales of smart watches, which other smart watch manufacturers do not have the conditions.

Tablet PC with the current situation is similar to the smart watch, the global trend of flat panel seems to be a foregone conclusion, ipaid sales, though it is also continuing to decline, but still maintain a certain level of shipments, which is the value of brand adhesion.

In fact, the smart watch itself is not a fake demand, but has not yet reached its point in time of eruption, but in this period it will go through a long period of pain, very naturally can be sub-cake, quite can only act as an industry The “martyrs”, and hold on the key lies in the idea of ​​another product, so that smart watches can get the user’s favorite.

Smart Watch “Station Study”: election on the “big brother” is very important

In the above, we discussed the reason why many smart watches continued to decline in sales. To sum up, in fact, some smart watch manufacturers are actually making mistakes in positioning and perception, and smart watches are wrong and wrong “Big Brother”, although the general trend of smart upgrades is inevitable, but for now, smart watches are intelligent hardware, smart watches should not be close to smart machines, but should choose to move closer to traditional watches, based on traditional watches Instead of jumping directly to the “smart society” blueprint for product design.

From the design point of view, the watch has become a key element for many people. However, almost all the smart watches design ideas follow the inertia of smart phones thinking, is designed to be square, the user does not pay the bill is naturally deserved.

But smartwatches, in any case, do nothing to experiencing the experience of a smart phone, is a pain point that can not be changed, so it is somewhat exaggerated to see it as the next smart phone-like product. After all, the screen is limited, the use of the scene is limited, but the standard traditional watches, smart watches can work hard in the design, this is to make up, and for most people, the watch is just accessories, to look good, identity Symbol, if on this basis, then equipped with intelligence, it would be even more icing on the cake.

From the crowd, the biggest target audience for smart watches should be middle-class consumers who want a decent watch that can be worn on a variety of occasions but do not want to buy expensive premium watches. Watches are serious commodities with extreme price differentials, a watch that can be worn on any occasion, and the price is quite expensive for most middle class. However, having a decent watch, like having decent suits, is almost a rigid requirement for the middle class, provided the watch is not unaffordable. Well, there is a huge amount of opportunities.

First of all, the price of smart watches will be much lower than a decent traditional watch. Hundreds of dollars, if you buy a toy, it is quite expensive, but if you buy a piece of any occasion can not be discounted, or even to reflect their own sense of fashion / technology sense of the watch, it is very cheap.

Second, a huge difference between smartwatches and traditional watches is that smartwatches can and must be iterated. Traditional high-level watches, the basic buy is to be long-term use. Unless the wealth / identity explosion rises or hobbies in the future, the middle class people will not basically change their minds at will. The smart watch is not, even if the cycle is longer, it will certainly form an iteration, and after a period of time, consumers will abandon the old purchase of new products, new iterations of intelligent products to ensure its market saturation.

A brief review of the watch for centuries history of development, we will find, whether it is the impact of quartz watch on the mechanical watch that year, or now the “smart watch” represented by Apple Watch impact on the quartz watch and mechanical watch , Mechanical watches are forever handed down for their unique user value, this irreplaceable value is not how powerful watches, but contains the movement of the pointer under the history, technology and wealth symbol.

Although currently on the market noisy smart watches and love the table did not win the hearts and minds of people, but hope that the future smart watches do not become a cell phone companion again picked up through the 500-year-old beauty of the pointer in the history and technology , To find a good balance between the continuation of the traditional watch pointer appearance and battery life, smart wristbands capture the core intelligence to become personal data detection and processing center, flexible adaptation to the various life and work scenarios , Embrace the future with smart technology, and extend the classic with the beauty of pointers.

In short, in my opinion, smart watches and traditional watches there is no obvious exclusion relationship, but should be more and more smart watches fashion, fashion watches more and more intelligent, the integration of the two is the general trend.

Therefore, for smart watch manufacturers, from design to function, should first learn from traditional watches, because this product itself should be an upgrade to the traditional watch, to the current characteristics of the user-based product design, rather than to Future imagination as the basis, can not “eat a fat one,” steady and steady fight is king, after all, the user’s acceptance also requires a process.

Target subdivision scenarios: sports, health, children, or best incremental factor

From the current point of view, the development of smart watches does not seem optimistic, but in my opinion, the emergence of this situation is actually unexpected things.

After all, with the vents often go hand in hand is the bubble, the concept of intelligent hardware hot, led a wave of consumer tide, the smart watch market quickly go hot, attracted some impulse consumer groups, after years of precipitation, bubble break, Powder cooling is also normal. In front of us to learn traditional watches is to solve the current smart watch manufacturers a solution to the plight of ideas. In addition, although the environment remains to be explored, it can not be concluded that there is no market for smart watches. Under the long-tail effect, many users still have a soft spot for their watches. However, The amount is limited, in order to expand the user base, smart watches should make an issue in the vertical scene to expand the crowd.

In the traditional economy, the single purchase behavior mostly points to the use value. Consumers buy because they need rather than buy. In the long-tail economy, random consumption and sudden consumption increase greatly. In the mainstream target group How to tap the vertical scene has become the key to breaking the industry.

In the author’s opinion, want to expand the user base, mainly around two aspects to make a fuss: The first scene is that there is no smart machine or smart machine can not replace the scene, the second scene is competing with competing products to snatch users, such as smart hand Ring and other wearable smart devices.

According to relevant information, at present, smart watches and smart bracelets occupy a total proportion of more than 90% of the wearable device product form. The mainstream smart watch functions are generally concentrated in the telephone answering, event reminders, interactive dual-screen, data services. The smart bracelet is mainly based on health, which includes fitness jogging, sleep detection, heart rate measurement and other ancillary functions. However, these functional watches are also available. It is a wise choice to rejuvenate the smartwatches by drawing on the function of the bracelet to reap the target audience of smart wearable products and smart bracelets.

In the above, I mentioned, smart watches with the big brother is very important, do not compare with the smart machine, do not substitute, the screen is limited, the arm will never be the thigh, to do intelligent machines complement each other, intelligent machine versatility, But it is not a gnarling, running in this vertical scene, and can not play too much value, professional speaking friends, preferring watches rather than cell phones, although the handset is not as good as portable, smartwatches can be other Give users more experience.

Then health. Mobile medical, health field. This direction is a brand new blue ocean. With people’s emphasis on health, the market prospect in this area is extremely vast. If this wearable device can really achieve the function of detecting human health in many aspects, then this wearable will be the second one after the mobile phone , Another personal electronic product with the highest penetration rate. Smart watches and smart bracelets, there is a direct competitive relationship, in terms of health, smart watches function to spike smart bracelets, snatch more markets.

Surveillance fitness, physical data, not for the doctor to see, but to allow users to master, walk 10,000 steps today? Climbed several floors, etc., more is an incentive mechanism. Like a mobile phone installed nike running, you can count the run mileage, plus some less perfect social function, running enthusiasm has been improved, in fact, those data are not accurate, but running, lonely movement, But I need people to know that I am alone.

In modern society, health is mentioned a very important degree, the monitoring of smart watches is not scientific and meticulous analysis, but rather the record and a simple analysis, play the role of supervision and supervision, from this perspective, the future of smart watches is great of.

Finally, in the children’s market, the smart watch market can still spike smartphones. After all, premature contact with smartphones is not a good thing for kids, and it is easy to indulge in the internet. Smart watches, as emasculated smartphones, can be very good Fill the phone gap. In addition, children as vulnerable groups in society, smart watches can be anti-lost. Smart watches on the market, in addition to the basic GPS positioning, a key for help, electronic fence, remote listening, health management and other functions are indispensable to the protection of children’s safety, complete anti-lost function allows parents and children in the face of There are more than one solution to danger and more insurance.

This shows that smart watches after the peak market a few years ago, so far now fell to the bottom, it is better to say that the market has returned to the rational stage, which is the stage the industry must go through. Finding a suitable market position and targeting subdivision scenarios will be the main theme of future industry development. It is also the basis and premise for players in the industry to safely pass the “painful period” and reap future market dividends.

 

Where do the magnetic fields that shape the universe come from?

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The power that shapes our universe is not solely gravity. The magnetic field that has long been forgotten may have played an important role in it. Image Source: “New Scientist”

(Compilation / Shea) Whenever it comes to the universe, gravity does its part. It allows our feet to stand firmly on the ground, and it shapes our universe. It causes the cloud of gas to collapse, forming stars and planets. It gave birth to hundreds of billions of stars in galaxies. It is also under its influence that galaxies converge into galaxy clusters and further form super-galaxy clusters. However, in this game, gravity is not the only player – there is a force between the universe, it is magnetic. (more…)

In the history of the largest technology mergers and acquisitions “last minute” counter-attack

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March 6, 2018, the United States Qualcomm shareholders meeting, is known as the history of the largest technology mergers and acquisitions Casey acquisition of Qualcomm case of a positive battle. However, only one day before the holding of Qualcomm shareholders ‘meeting, Qualcomm broke the probe on the morning of March 5 in the United States to accept the investigation by the U.S. Foreign Investment Commission (CFIUS). CFIUS therefore ordered Qualcomm to defer its shareholders’ Triggered the market uproar.

Figure 丨 US Foreign Investment Commission (CFIUS) (more…)

Shi Yigong: All fertilized eggs 3.5 billion years ago from the same cell the same material

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On January 17, 2016, Prof. Shi Yigong, vice president of Tsinghua University, dean of Tsinghua University’s School of Life Sciences, academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences and structural biologist, delivered a speech titled “The Limit of Life Science Cognition “Speech.

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Where do people come from?
Today, I want to discuss with you the essence of life and the limits of life.

Let’s see where people come from (more…)

Why are e-commerce eager to become members? Take a look at Amazon’s data experience

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According to Forbes magazine, Amazon reported fourth-quarter and full-year earnings for 2017 with net sales of $ 179.9 billion in 2017, a 31% increase from 2016’s $ 136 billion and net profit of $ 2.4 billion in 2016 Increase to 3 billion US dollars by 2017. The latest financial results also reflect the fact that as the company’s efforts in international markets, technology, content and marketing are driving up the growth in operating expenses is squeezing margins. (more…)

Google once again breakthrough in the quantum computer, released 72 qubits processor

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According to a 9to5google foreign media report, Google Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory announced the advent of the Bristlecone quantum processor, which “provides a more convincing proof of principle for building larger quantum computers.”

Quantum computing is often referred to as a frontier in the technology industry and is expected to dramatically improve the computational performance of the device. But the field is still in its early stages of development and many companies are exploring this area.

Quantum computing is the intersection of computer science and quantum physics. The current computer still relies on the Boolean logic system to operate, the Boolean type has only two values: true and false. (more…)

NASA to launch new telescope next month or find “new Earth” outside the solar system

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In a clean room at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, a small telescope is being placed on a plateau for the final series of tests before launch. The reason why the test is extremely strict is that the four cameras of this telescope will have no protective cover when fired. This is one of the simplified design decisions NASA has made to help TSP achieve its goal of detecting at least 50 potential small-sized rocky planets.

In fact, the TESS proposal is even older than NASA’s Kepler telescope project. Kepler, launched in 2009, confirms the space survivability of the extraterrestrial planetary probe. Both telescopes have adopted the “Lingri method” to find extraterrestrial planets. The Kepler telescope not only confirms that Lingri Fa is a powerful planetary search technology but also finds that our galaxy is populated with an alarming number of planets, many of which are two to four times larger than our own.

In the initial mission phase, the Kepler telescope searched for stars a thousand light-years away in the starry sky of Cygnus, Lyra and Draco. So far, scientists have determined that out of the roughly 170,000 stars Kepler has explored, 2,341 aliens orbiting these stars revolve around them. Another 4496 candidate planets have not yet been identified, but many of the planets may never be validated because their host stars are too dim to make ground-based telescopes more difficult to observe in subsequent studies.

TESS project team used a reverse observation method, first using the ground observation station to determine the candidate class of planets, and then astronomical telescopes to determine the observation target. They selected about 200,000 stars for the first two years of TESS’s mission. The European Space Agency’s Gaia telescope details each of the target stars, and the Gaia telescope is creating a catalog of the universe’s most complete planetary positions and distances ever recorded.

Most of TESS’s targets are within 300 light-years of Earth’s distance and closer to most of the stars explored by the Kepler telescope, and their brightness is even brighter. Stephen Rinehart, a project scientist from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said: “In the TESS project, we will be able to conduct follow-up ground tracking studies of all our targets and that’s a matter of sequence and there is no issue of ability.”

Ling-day detection technology to detect the relative size of the planet and host stars. If multiple canvassing phenomena can be observed, scientists can also determine the position of the star’s orbit from the star. This information can then be used to assess its temperature and the likelihood of liquid water on its surface, which is the planet Is a key factor in livable.

But assessing the mass of a planet requires determining whether it is made of metals and rocks similar to the Earth or ice and gas, when astronomers probe with a geospatial telescope. This usually requires a medium-sized observatory to observe the star’s light swing caused by gravitational attraction. The TESS project is recruiting dozens of astronomers to participate in the project, and plans to use the free time of several ground-based telescopes for follow-up research.

TESS is currently scheduled to launch in mid-April this year, about two months after its launch, it will begin to search nearby nearby planets. At that time, the astronomical telescope should have reached a certain point in Earth’s orbit, orbiting roughly 67,300 miles from Earth, and then it will approach the lunar orbit, some 234,000 miles away. When TESS is at its highest point in Earth’s orbit, the moon will form a 90-degree angle on the left or right hand side of it, becoming its orbital stabilizer, enabling TESS to achieve gravitational forces over the decades without manipulating the thrusters Stable.

This eccentric orbit allows TESS to remain in deep space for most of the time, which also minimizes the effects of light reflected from Earth and the Moon. TESS runs around the Earth every 13.7 days, twice as fast as the moon. As TESS approaches the Earth, it will suspend its observation mission for the next 10 hours and transmit the stored scientific data to three ground receiving stations at NASA’s Deep Space Communications Network. Those data will be delivered at high speeds, a transport network that paves the way for other data-intensive space missions in the future, including the James Webb Space Telescope.

The TESS data includes not only the brightness measurement every two minutes for each target star, but also the cosmic panorama of more than 20 million stars and 10 million galaxies taken every half hour. Patricia Boyd, an astronomer who is responsible for TESS recruitment at NASA, said: “It’s work will bring us valuable data and we expect this archive to last for years.”

The four cameras on this space telescope cover a 24-degree-wide, 96-degree wedge, equivalent to about 10,000 stars in the sky. TESS changes its viewing angle every two laps, and it covers the entire southern hemisphere of the sky during the first year of operation. As a result, TESS will detect 90% of the sky and will be able to detect 400 times more than the Kepler Space Telescope.

Astronomers are most interested in the stars around the pole, these stars directly above or below the zodiac plane. The stellar world in these regions will be the next major research goal of the James Webb Space Telescope. The James Webb Space Telescope will attempt to infer the atmospheric chemistry of some of the transit alien planets. The Weber space telescope is expected to be launched in 2019.

George Ticker, chief scientist at the TESS project, said at MIT’s George Ricker: “TESS acts as a finder for Webb Space Telescope, and the specific stars discovered by TESS are in fact potential hosts for alien planets. TESS completed the survey of 50 small Mission objectives for planetary quality should not be difficult.Computer simulations show that the number of planets identified by the research team should exceed 500 before the first three years of ground-based observational events, rather than the 50 initially set.

In the end, the TESS project should be able to add as many as 20,000 new planets to the catalog of extraterrestrial planets. Most new planets will run around red dwarfs, which are about a quarter to one half the diameter of our sun, but they will be darker and cooler. About 70% of the stars in the Milky Way are red dwarfs, and they are also the main targets of the TESS project.

Rinehart, a project scientist, said: “The most exciting part of any new assignment is the surprising finding I really hope we can find something weird someday in the future, something we can not explain and need to think about I think we will certainly find out, but I do not know what it is. ”

 

Stanford students asked Apple to develop “cell phones for the elderly”

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In 2005, Apple founder Joe Bangzhu once encouraged his classmates at a famous speech at Stanford: “time is limited.” However, Joe may help the Lord will not think that after a decade, this sentence was Stanford classmates “live and learn to use” to “boycott” Apple’s products – they want to addicted to Apple’s mobile phone, iPad grab the time Come back and ask Apple to develop a “core mode of mode” that can only make calls, send and receive text messages, and take pictures …

Stanford University students protest at the Apple store door According to “Stanford Daily”
Stanford University student organizations “anti-electronic device addiction” campaign, Apple as the primary goal

According to the Insider Web site, a few days ago, led by computer science students, Stanford students are currently organizing a campaign called “Anti-Electronic Device Addiction (SSAAD)” and held at an Apple Store in Silicon Valley just over the weekend Parade protest. And in the protest, they made a very creative request, hoping Apple to develop a “core functional model”, open the model, the phone can only make calls, send text messages and take pictures.

Stanford University newspaper introduction, students believe Apple did not do enough to resist the growing mobile addiction. On the organization’s website, students explain in detail why they specifically target Apple devices as a primary goal to combat addiction.

“The iPhone is the threshold for many teens to engage with social software that makes them addictive, so it’s the most powerful control valve that helps teens out of the addiction to playing mobiles,” the site wrote. “And Apple’s business model does not need to be built on ‘Addiction’, unlike many software, the more people use, the more they earn … Even then, they do not do enough to assume the role of reducing adolescence The responsibility of addiction. ”

Students put forward more ways to avoid cell phone addiction, agreed by scientists

In the meantime, these students also give users ways to avoid phone addiction – turn off software pop-up windows, or simply turn your phone into a gray screen mode to “minimize the amount of cell phone irritation your dopamine secretion “. And this approach, also by many scientists, “praise” – According to the “Daily Mail” reported that Google former design ethic Tristan Harris said he was also a cell phone addict before, but the color of the iPhone mobile phone change Into the gray screen to quit this habit.

Turn the phone into a gray screen helps people quit cell phone addiction According to the “Daily Mail”

He said that many software will use bright colors as the main color of their app, allowing users to create a “want to use” subconscious. This situation is not uncommon, he had done a similar experiment in his own office: the candies from the glass jar into the opaque jar, the staff to eat candy significantly reduced the behavior, which replaced the phone into a gray Screen is a reason.